<<20130505>>
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HervŽ Lohoues, Ph.D. <wlmailhtml:hlohoues@hotmail.com>
Hans Rudolf Herren, Ph.D. <wlmailhtml:hh@millennium-institute.org>
Greg
Cole, Ph.D. <gcole@gloriad.org>
Weishuang Qu, Dr. <wq@millennium-institute.org>
References:
(a)
Takeshi Utsumi, GLOSAS/USA
"Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG)"
http://tinyurl.com/k2c7a
The above paper is in the following book;
(b) Global Peace Through The Global University System
Tapio Varis -
Takeshi Utsumi - William Klemm (Eds.)
The entire contents of this book can be retrieved at;
http://tinyurl.com/kofpf
In the bottom line of this page, you can find the following;
(c) ÒInterview with Takeshi UtsumiÓ by Parker Rossman
http://tinyurl.com/fnxxt
(d) First ICCC at Hilton Hotel in
Washington DC in October 1972
<http://tinyurl.com/93m78wk>
(e) (20100925) "Law of
Sea" as an Example of Computer Mediated Negotiation for Prevention of
Conflicts <http://tinyurl.com/2g3teej>
(f) Straus, D. B., et al; ÒComputer-Assisted Negotiations: A Case History
from the Law of the Sea Negotiations and Speculation Regarding Future UsesÓ
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Volume 426, pp
234 to 265, November 1, 1984
(html file, 70 KB -- http://tinyurl.com/2e44z4j),
(pdf file, 21.6 MB -- http://tinyurl.com/2vyx4f9)
(g) (07/20/08) (1) Mtg at Columbia University on
July 15th and (2) GCEPG Project to meet with Al Gore's bold vision
http://tinyurl.com/56wk74
(h) The
Global Early Warning System (GEWS) with The Global University System (GUS): Their Use Within
ECOWAS Countries; A Priority Agenda Item of the First GEWS/GUS
Planning Workshop at School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA),
Columbia University, and The Stevens Institute of Technology (August 2, 2012)
<http://tinyurl.com/bmo9ljj>
Dear Herve:
(1) Many thanks for your msg
(ATTACHMENT II below).
Dear Hans:
(2) Many thanks also for your support msg
(ATTACHMENT I below).
Dear Herve:
(3) Very glad to know that you had a good contact with Daniel in Benin, though
you could not join in our 4/18th webcam event.
I plan to rehearse the same webcam in the coming few weeks, since I would like
to do the same during the planning workshop of our GEWS project which is to be
held at the office of GLORIAD at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville (UTK)
-- within 2 month after obtaining the NSF grant.
(4) BTW, Greg Cole of GLORIAD was very busy with his urgent important task till
the end of April, so that I sent him the next-to-final version of our grant
application to the NSF for this workshop on April 29th. I expect his
submitting it within a few weeks from now.
I would then expect to have this 5-day workshop around early fall — after
4 months from now (with 2 month for the NSFÕs processing plus 2 month for the
GEWS/GLORIADÕs preparation) — this is to answer your question #2.
Dear
Greg:
Pls
submit our grant application to the NSF at your earliest convenience, since
many colleagues are now looking forward to this planning workshop. Many
thanks in advance.
(5) Very glad to know that your ECOWAS has a section which handles Early
Warning.
Sorry to say that we donÕt know anyone of this section yet. Pls feel free to introduce us to them (or vice versa).
(6) BTW, our GEWS was evolved from the GCEPG project (Reference (a) above),
which paper was presented at the First
International Conference on Computer Communication (ICCC) at Hilton Hotel in
Washington DC in October 1972 (Reference (d) above), at which time I saw the
demo of DARPANET, which was the very first predecessor of Internet. This
encounter with it changed my life to devote myself on its worldwide expansion.
It was the time of the first Oil-Shock so that our colleagues at the Mitsubishi
Chemical Company in Tokyo depicted the US/Japan conflict on grabbing oil from
the middle east, affecting on the companyÕs ethylene production — this
was done in a ÒpseudoÓ gaming fashion — here ÒpseudoÓ means that a
Japanese group acted as if Americans.
(7) GLOSAS/USA then conducted a demonstration of global-scale peace
gaming/simulation at the conference on "Crisis Management and Conflict
Resolution" that was organized by the World Future Society (WFS) at Shelaton
Hotel in New York City in July of 1986.
An economist of ECOSOC at the United Nations wrote a crisis scenario on the U.S./Japan trade and economic
issue in relation to the Second Oil Shock. Prominent American economists
countered with Japanese team in Tokyo for three night events.
It was one of the largest and perhaps the most successful demonstration of
global gaming/simulation so far. Nearly 1,500 people took part in New York,
Tokyo, Honolulu, and at the World's Fair in Vancouver, B.C. — see the last part of the
Reference (c) above.
Mr. Don Straus, former President of American Arbitration Association, was there
and suggested a proposition, i.e., Japan spent about 3 % of GDP for military
and the US 6 % around that time, then why not switch the percentage between the
two countries. Prof. Onishi took this proposed
parameter setting and ran his FUGI model in a Hitachi super computer in Tokyo
and got the result that the trade in-balance between the two countries would
become even only if both countries would work together cooperatively rather than
competitively. This clearly
indicated the cost and dilemma of American's nuclear umbrella protecting
Japan's economic prosperity, thus threatening American's economic prosperity.
Mr. Straus (*) was very much impressed with the gaming/simulation because of
his previous experience with the ÒLaw of the SeaÓ project of the United Nations
which achieved consensus of 150 countries with the help of system analysis
computer program, as transforming advocacies into collaborators — see
References (e) and (f) above. BTW, our GEWS is to follow their precedence
in spirit.
(*)
BTW, Dan Straus was related to the founder of Macy Department Store in New York
City who was perished with Titanic.
(8) Dr. Qu of Millennium Institute once made his
presentation about his work on the post conflict resolution gaming/simulation
with people coming from Balkan countries, at the Lamont Doherty Earth
Observation Lab of the Columbia University by my invitation in the summer of
2008 (Reference (g) above).
This is what Hans mentioned in ATTACHMENT I below.
(9) As mentioned in the last page of the Reference (h) above, a NSF officer
suggested us the following steps in the funding process:
(a) Hold
our planning workshop with the NSFÕs unsolicited grant;
Greg Cole
of GLORIAD at the UTK is now submitting our grant application for this as
mentioned above.
(b) Apply for the NSFÕs CREATIV program
(http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2012/nsf12011/nsf12011.jsp).
(c) Once we get the CREATIV program fund, we will be entitled to encourage our
African colleagues to apply for the following to work with us:
NSF and USAID Jointly Launch International, Interagency PEER Program to Advance
Science Collaboration With the Developing World <http://tinyurl.com/6ttzqmq>
(10) We have started to preparing our grant application for the CREATIV program with
which we will have the following workshop;
(a)
One-day workshop at the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) of
Columbia University in Manhattan, New York City
(b) Following four days at the Stevens Institute of Technology in Hoboken, New
Jersey
During the workshop at the SIPA of Columbia University, we will demonstrate our
GEWS project for the combined use of the normative (role-playing) gaming with
the quantitative (model-based) simulation, thus also showing the paradigm shift
in the international political science field.
The former (normative gaming) has already been conducted by our colleague who
was the president of Shell Development Company and who stayed in Port Harcourt
in Nigeria for a dozen years or so, and a staff at the Millennium Institute
indicated his willingness to work on this project as constructing necessary simulation models.
The purpose of this demo is to verify the energy propositions made by the
President Obama and former Vice President Al Gore in global perspective, who
proposed to replace the use of crude oil for generating electricity with green
energy, i.e., solar or wind, etc. by 2030. As you know, those oil to generate electricity has to be less sulfur and
mostly comes from Nigeria.
The 40% of oil export from Nigeria come to the US, and 97% of the Nigerian
government revenue comes from the oil export.
When this Obama/Al Gore energy proposition will succeed, almost a half of the
Nigerian governmentÕs revenue would disappear. Even without the success
of green energy, the US is expecting to become energy INDEPENDENT thanks to new
massive hydraulic fracturing technology for production of shale gas, thus
without necessitating to import Nigerian oil.
This is to happen by 2030 — mere 17 years from now!! Is there any
remedy to cope with this devastating catastrophic future of Nigeria?
Our proposed GEWS/ECOWAS project is to analyze this future
collaboratively as inter-linking socio-economic-energy-environmental simulation
models of various ECOWAS countries.
(11) Pls feel free to contact me if you have any
further questions.
Keep in touch.
Best, Tak
ATTACHMENT
I
From: Hans R Herren <hh@millennium-institute.org>
Subject: Re: Request for GEWS/ECOWAS workshop at the UTK
Date: May 4, 2013
9:37:06 AM EDT
To: "Herve Lohoues" <hlohoues@hotmail.com>
Cc: "Tak Utsumi" <takutsumi0@gmail.com>,
"Adedoyin Onasanya"
<ao@millennium-institute.org>,
"Abdoulaye Zonon"
<abdouzonon@yahoo.com>,
"Djedjero Akpa Paulin" <akpa_djedjero@yahoo.com>,
"Amadou Diouf"
<amadiouf_pcd@yahoo.com>,
"Guevera Yao" <gueverayao_cdp@yahoo.com>
Dear HervŽ and colleagues,
I am pleased that this project is advancing, not the least because it will help
in the institutionalization of the T21 model both at Government and also
university level.
There can't be enough capacity in system thinking and handling in the face of
all the challenges that we are up against in the decades ahead. So I think that
the GEWS project can help very well in that direction.
Also wanted to mention that we have been considering the use of T21 for both
conflict prevention and post conflict situation, the latter we did already in
the Balkan few years ago. Given the situation in the Sahel, I guess that the
ECOWAS project could be extended to such
applications and our Board Chair, Prof Ndioro Ndiaye is looking into options now.
This just to add some to HervŽ's comment and give supportÉ..
Best, Hans
ATTACHMENT
II
From: "Herve Lohoues"
<hlohoues@hotmail.com>
Subject: Re: Request for GEWS/ECOWAS workshop at the UTK
Date: May 4, 2013
4:49:46 AM EDT
To: "Tak Utsumi" <takutsumi0@gmail.com>
Cc: "Tak Utsumi" <takutsumi0@gmail.com>,
"Hans R Herren" <hh@millennium-institute.org>,
"Adedoyin Onasanya"
<ao@millennium-institute.org>,
"Abdoulaye Zonon"
<abdouzonon@yahoo.com>,
"Djedjero Akpa Paulin" <akpa_djedjero@yahoo.com>,
"Amadou Diouf"
<amadiouf_pcd@yahoo.com>,
"Guevera Yao" <gueverayao_cdp@yahoo.com>
Dear Tak,
This is to acknowledge receipt of your email and the attached proposal. Thank
you.
First of all, please accept my apologies for the delay of my response to your
previous emails. The last month has been pretty busy and I have been quite far
from by base in Abuja.
My apologies also for not being able to attend the video
conference planned on 18 April. As you know, I was leading an ECOWAS CDP
mission in Cotonou where, BTW, I met Daniel and had a
good discussuion about our respective activities.
Now, regarding the GEWS project, I have a couple of questions for you:
1 – I donÕt know if you know that at the ECOWAS Commission there is a
department in charge of Early Warning whoch takes
cares of everything relating to conflict prevention in the ECOWAS Region. My
question now is: is anybody of this department involved in your GEWS project?
Is the GEWS liked to this type of conflict prevention?
2 – Do you have an approximate date/period for the GEWS/ECOWAS workshop?
I know it is said that it could hold within 2 months after obtaining the grant
from NSF.
3 – My Team and myself have a pretty tight and busy schedule this year to
deliver our ECOWAS CDP Regional Document which is a
top priority right now. This may keep us quite busy and not allow us to fully
participate in this project.
All this said, I commend the effort on this very valuable project and assure
you of my availability to be part of it if time allows it.
Thank you and God bless,
HervŽ
=================================
HervŽ Lohoues, PhD
Coordinator, Community Dvt Progr.
(CDP)
Macroeconomic Policy Department
ECOWAS Commission, Abuja, Nigeria
Mobile: +234 705 565 5330 / +234 813 157 9061
Email: hlohoues@hotmail.com
/ hlohoues@ecowas.int
List
of Disribution
HervŽ Lohoues,
Ph.D.
CDP Coordinator
Community Development Program (CDP)
Macroeconomic Policy Dpt
ECOWAS Commission
101 Yakubu Gowon Crescent,
Asokoro, District, PMB 401
Abuja, NIGERIA
Mobile: +234 705 56 55 330, +234 813 1579061
Email: wlmailhtml:hlohoues@hotmail.com
Hans Rudolf Herren, Ph.D.
President
Millennium Institute
1634 I St NW, Suite 300
Washington, DC 20006
cell + 1 530 867 4569
Tel 202 383 6200
Fax 202 383 6209
wlmailhtml:hansrherren@mac.com
wlmailhtml:hh@millennium-institute.org
www.millennium-institute.org
www.nourish9billion.org
http://www.biovision.ch/nc/en/home/
www.threshold21.com
http://www.biovision.ch
http://www.eduvision.or.ke
http://www.millenniuminstitute.net/
Greg
Cole, Ph.D.
Principal Investigator
Global Ring Network for Advanced Applications Development (GLORIAD)
Director/Center for International Networking Initiatives (CINI)
Institute for a Secure and Sustainable Environment
311 Conference Center Bldg
University of Tennessee
Knoxville, TN 37996-4134
Cel: 865-309-5524
865‐974‐1262 – GregÕs phone.
865-974-2459
Fax: 865-974-1838
gcole@gloriad.org
gcole@friends-partners.org
http://www.gloriad.org/
http://issue.utk.edu/cini/
http://www.gloriad.org/gloriad/team/usa/gcole.html
http://www.friends-partners.org/
http://events.internet2.edu/speakers/speakers.php?go=people&id=1495
-- bio
http://www.friendspartners.org/GLOSAS/Global_University/Global%20University%20System/Cole's%20GLORAID/GLORIAD_update.pdf
or
http://makeashorterlink.com/?B3BD61B1B
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/01/040102092834.htm
http://usinfo.state.gov/eap/Archive/2005/Apr/15-476539.html
-- about GLORIAD
Funded by the US National Science
Foundation, GLORIAD rings the northern hemisphere with an advanced optical
Internet currently linking scientists, educators, and students in the USA,
Russia, China, Korea, Canada, Netherlands, the five Nordic countries, Egypt,
India, and Singapore.
Weishuang Qu, Dr.
Director of Modeling and Analysis
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Blvd, Suite 650
Arlington, VA 22201-3357
Tel: +1-703-351-5081
Fax: +1-703-841-0050
Cel: 301-873-3073
wq@millennium-institute.org
www.millennium-institute.org
*******************************************************************************
Takeshi Utsumi, Ph.D., P.E., Chairman
GLObal Systems Analysis and Simulation Association in
the U.S.A. (GLOSAS/USA)
Laureate of Lord Perry Award for Excellence in Distance Education
Founder and V.P. for Technology and Coordination of Global University System
(GUS)
43-23 Colden Street, #9L, Flushing, NY 11355-5913, U.S.A.
Tel: 718-939-0928; Cel: 646-589-1730; Skype: utsumi
Email: takutsumi0@gmail.com,
Web: http://www.friends-partners.org/GLOSAS/
U.S./IRS Employer ID: 11-2999676 <http://tinyurl.com/534gxc>
New York State Tax Exempt ID: 217837 <http://tinyurl.com/47wqbo>
Google Profiles <https://profiles.google.com/takutsumi0/about>
Facebook <http://www.facebook.com/GlobalEarlyWarningSystemsgews>
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*******************************************************************************